questions


Why doesn’t Mississippi State try to double down on its lottery bet on Renardo Sidney by also signing the “supermodel with herpes,” Lance Stephenson? Alone, Sidney could lead the Bulldogs to the Sweet 16. But together with Sidney (and Jarvis Varnado), Stephenson might pave MSU a road to the Final Four. If the Bulldogs are willing to gamble on one elite but potentially ineligible recruit, why not two?

Why is Sean Miller’s recruiting haul at Arizona being hailed as an incredible coup? Granted, inking three Top 100 players in less than a (spring) month is no small feat. But Kevin Parrom earlier committed to Miller at Xavier and Solomon Hill earlier signed with Lute Olson at Arizona. Kyryl Natyazhko may have been the Wildcats’ biggest pure get – and he had been seriously considering joining Miller at Xavier.

Why would any NBA team make Stephen Curry a top-10 pick (given the likelihood that Curry is no more productive in the NBA than Eddie House)?

After failing to receive an invite to the Chicago Pre-Draft Camp, how long before Nic Wise withdraws from the NBA Draft?

Commentary :: Link & Discuss

NBC Sports


Before and during the NCAA Tournament, I was offered -- and appreciated -- the opportunity to contribute a handful of college basketball columns to NBC Sports.

See here, here, here, and here.

Commentary :: Link & Discuss

A $2 million man?


I like Anthony Grant. He is a talented coach and recruiter with an impressive resume, particularly for an SEC school. Grant is a great hire for Alabama, where he'll likely succeed.

But Grant isn't worth $2 million a year. No way. No how. Not now.

Grant's been a head coach for only three seasons. He owes his success to a senior, Eric Maynor, he did not recruit. Most importantly, he is much less accomplished than the very large number of coaches who earn significantly less than $2 million a year -- including Grant's old boss, Oklahoma's Jeff Capel.

Even Georgia Tech's Paul Hewitt, the most overpaid coach in power conference basketball, currently pulls in significantly less than $2 million a year.

Commentary :: Link & Discuss

If I had to guess


the final two teams the Selection Committee considered were Arizona and San Diego State. The Selection Committee ultimately opted for Arizona, in large part because of the Wildcats' regular season defeat of the Aztecs.

Commentary :: Link & Discuss (1 comment)

Doug Gottlieb, Rising Star


I completely agree with Fox Sports' Jason Whitlock; Doug Gottlieb is "smart, opinionated and unafraid. ESPN needs to expand his role."

This afternoon, Gottlieb alone predicted both Dayton and Wisconsin were much less secure than the majority of bracketologists believed. As it were, both the Flyers and the Badgers were among the final four teams selected for the field of 65.

Commentary :: Link & Discuss (2 comments)

The Last Four Bids


After Mississippi State defeated Tennessee, four at-large bids remain for the following eight clubs. Which teams would you select for the field of 65?

RPI Avg RPI Win Avg RPI Loss vs. RPI 1-50 vs. RPI 51-100 Last 12 Games Away Neutral Team
31 147 42 2-6 5-3 8-4 5-5 4-2 San Diego State
40 133 32 5-8 4-2 5-7 4-6 2-1 Minnesota
41 158 92 2-2 7-3 11-1 8-4 3-1 Creighton
44 113 40 4-10 5-1 7-5 4-7 2-2 Wisconsin
47 181 80 2-3 1-1 8-4 8-3 5-2 Saint Mary's
51 139 40 4-8 4-3 6-6 2-6 4-3 Maryland
63 140 45 6-10 2-2 7-5 2-9 2-1 Arizona
68 163 45 6-9 1-1 6-6 5-6 2-2 Penn State

In head-to-head play, San Diego State lost to St. Mary's and Arizona. Minnesota swept Wisconsin, which swept Penn State. Minnesota and Penn State split their season series.

Commentary :: Link & Discuss

Arizona's Bad Karma


After Arizona archrival Arizona State lost to USC to reduce the number of at-large bids available, former Arizona and current Tennessee guard J.P. Prince missed what would have been the game-tying free throw, then turned the ball over with under 10 seconds remaining against Mississippi State. The Bulldogs' subsequent victory further decreased the likelihood the Wildcats will go dancing.

Commentary :: Link & Discuss (1 comment)

Nobody Wants A No. 1 Seed


Not Kansas. Not Oklahoma. Not Michigan State. Not Wake Forest.

Even Connecticut, Pittsburgh, and North Carolina tried to unlock their No 1 seeds.

If Louisville tonight defeats Syracuse, the Cardinals will secure a No 1 seed. If not, Memphis will receive the final No. 1 seed by default.

Commentary :: Link & Discuss (1 comment)

Morning in America


Good Morning Must-Reads

1. The Madison (WI) Times' Mike Lucas on the education of Ohio State's freshmen. "Before the start of the 2007-2008 season, Ohio State men's basketball coach Thad Matta decided to conduct an informal Q & A with his freshmen players. 'What's an automatic bid.' Matta got no response. 'What does the 'bubble' mean?' No reaction. 'At large?' Silence. 'They didn't know,' Matta sighed. 'None of them knew.'" LINK.

2. Sports Illustrated's Luke Winn on DeJuan Blair's offensive rebounding. "Blair has been the most dominant major-conference offensive rebounder of not just this season, but the past eight seasons... B[asketball] P[rospectus] recently made the mind-boggling observation that Blair is also outrebounding seven D-I teams on the offensive glass." LINK.

3. The Wall Street Journal's Darren Everson on Virginia Tech. "What if Stephen and Seth Curry, the sons of Virginia Tech legend Dell Curry, had come to Tech, rather than being allowed to slip through the school's recruiting net?" LINK.

4. McClatchy Newspapers' Robbi Pickeral and Ken Tysiac on ACC players' favorite moves. "If the best players get the ball in their best spots, the defense often can’t stop them." LINK.

5. USA Today's Jack Carey on Selection Friday for NCAA Tournament officials. "Game officials can log on to a secure Internet site Friday night and learn whether they're among the 96 officials and eight alternates selected to work the [NCAA Tournament]." LINK.

Good Morning Quote

“I know he never listened to his uncle about anything." Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim on Donte Greene, whose uncle, Derrick Marcano, received a $50,000 line of credit during the 2007-08 season as part of Ceruzzi Sports and Entertainment's efforts to sign Greene. LINK.

Good Morning Stat

Dayton guard London Warren averages 4.1 assists per outing in only 20.6 minutes of play. According to KenPom.com, when Warren is in the game, he assists a whopping 37.7 percent of his teammates' field goals, good for 11th best in the country.

Commentary :: Link & Discuss (2 comments)

When there is blood in the streets, should hoopheads buy Butler?


No. The young Bulldogs have hit a wall on defense.

Should contrarian hoopheads head Baron Rothschild’s famous advice, “when there is blood in the streets, buy real estate,” and upgrade rather than downgrade the Bulldogs after their loss last night to Cleveland State?

The arguments for buying:

First, Butler still has a solid resume, with wins over Xavier, UAB, Northwestern, and Davidson. Second, the Bulldogs are also very consistent. According to Ken Pomeroy, Butler is the nation's sixth most consistent club. Third, Cleveland State isn't half bad. The Vikings won at Syracuse and entered the Horizon League with more than twice as many wins (21) as losses (10). Fourth and finally, Butler yesterday played almost as badly as it is capable of playing -- and still only lost by three points. (Using Pomeroy's stats, I computed the difference in the Bulldogs' average and actual offensive and defensive efficiencies in each of their games this season. Only once, in a loss at Wisconsin-Green Bay, was Butler's combined deviation from their average efficiencies notably worse than last night's deviation).

The arguments for selling:

First, Butler's resume isn't exceptional. The Bulldogs' best wins came either in late November and early December or against teams that are at best on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Butler also lost at hapless Wisconsin-Milwaukee and at home (!) to Loyola of Chicago. Second, the Bulldogs aren't particularly efficient. According to Ken Pomeroy (and before last night's loss), Butler is only the nation's 58th most efficient offensive club and 46th most efficient defensive club, making their Top 25 rating hard to justify. Third, Cleveland State lost to Youngstown State, Wichita State, and Wisconsin-Milwaukee and isn't great. But last night's close contest was no fluke. Butler twice beat the Vikings by only two points before last night's loss. Fourth, finally -- and most importantly -- Butler has hit a wall on defense (contrary to what coach Brad Stevens told the Indianapolis Star's David Woods in late February). The young Bulldogs have played significantly less efficient defense in their final 11 Horizon League games than they did in their first 10. Butler allowed conference opponents to score 0.12 more points per possession late in the season than it did early in the season.

Points Scored/Allowed Per Possession (from KenPom.com) First 10 Horizon League Games Final 11 Horizon League Games
Butler's Offensive Efficiency 1.06 1.08
Butler's Defensive Efficiency 0.87 0.99

Conclusion:

Based on Butler's late-season defensive collapse, hoopheads should read the writing on the wall and downgrade the Bulldogs.

Commentary :: Link & Discuss (2 comments)

Mathnet College Hoops


Dear Miami's Jack McClinton:

I couldn't help but notice that you are this year more accurate from behind the three point arc than you are from in front of it. And that this is not a coincidence. Over the course of your collegiate career, you have been equally as accurate from long range as from short range. (Amazing).

Given that a three pointer is worth, well, more than a two pointer, I suggest that you against Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament jack up more threes and less twos.

Sincerely Yours,

George Frankly

Commentary :: Link & Discuss

yocorrect!


A couple weeks ago, Arizona appeared destined for the NCAA Tournament and Russ Pennell was a leading candidate for Coach of the Year. (See, for example Seth Davis' coach of the year candidates, Jeff Goodman's "Dandy Dozen," and Jimmy Dykes' would be COY ballot).

At the time, I warned you not to believe the hype.

Today, after four consecutive losses, the Wildcats are squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble -- and perhaps on the wrong side.

Arizona should defeat Stanford in its final regular season game, which may (or may not) be enough to send the 'Cats dancing. If the Wildcats lose to their first round Pac-10 Tournament opponent, Jordan Hill, Chase Budinger, Nic Wise will have to sweat Selection Sunday.

Commentary :: Link & Discuss (2 comments)

Studs! Of! The! Night!


G - Donald Johnson, Delaware State. 31 points (on eight of 13 shooting, including six of nine from behind the arc) in the Hornets' road win at the Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks.

G - Stanley Pringle, Penn State. 20 points (on eight for 11 shooting, including a perfect four of four from behind the arc) and five rebounds in the Nittany Lions' come-from-behind victory over the Illinois Fighting Illini. (Talor Battle's game-winning shot would never have been possible had Pringle not had an outstanding night -- and nailed his only two field goal attempts in the game's final five minutes. Battle missed his two crunch time shots prior to his game winner).

G - Scottie Reynolds, Villanova. 23 points (on nine of 13 shooting) and four assists in the Wildcats' win over the Providence Friars.

F - Justin Rutty, Quinnipiac. 18 points (on seven for nine shooting) and 16 rebounds (seven offensive) in the Bobcats' road win at the Long Island Blackbirds.

C - Jordan Hill, Arizona 24 points, 14 rebounds, and four assists in the Wildcats' loss to the California Golden Bears.

Commentary :: Link & Discuss (1 comment)

Georgetown Done In By Big Easy, Not Big East


Don’t believe everything you read. The Hoyas will not miss the NCAA Tournament because of the Big East’s strength. Instead, Georgetown will fail to go dancing because the Hoyas’ couldn’t overcome the conference’s weaker teams.

Georgetown lost to Seton Hall, St. John’s, and Cincinnati (twice). Had the Hoyas won at least three of these four contests, they would today be March Madness bound.

Commentary :: Link & Discuss

Tuesday's Duds! Of! The! Day! (Bubble Teams Only)


In honor of bubble-bursting losses by Georgetown, Cincinnati, and Kansas State, I present tonight present the day's duds (rather than studs).

G - Chris Wright, Georgetown. With 9:38 remaining and the Hoyas up 46-32, their second leading scorer missed a layup. Moments later, St. John's comeback began. Wright would go on to miss another layup, this time with 5:20 left and the Hoyas up 46-38, and commit the shooting foul that allowed the Red Storm's D.J. Kennedy to make the go ahead free throws in overtime.

G - Dion Dixon, Cincinnati. With Mike Williams nursing a sprained MCL, the Bearcats needed to replace his production against South Florida. Dixon tried to do so -- and failed. He made his first field goal 5:25 into the contest, then missed his next eight, seven three pointers included.

G - Denis Clemente, Kansas State. The Wildcats' leading scorer missed all of his field goal attempts in the final 10 minutes. In the loss to Oklahoma State, he finished five for 15 from the field, committed four turnovers, and didn't grab a single rebound.

G - Larry Davis, Cincinnati. The Bearcats' normally productive reserve did more harm than good at South Florida. In 13 minutes, he missed three field goals, committed a turnover, and didn't score a single point.

F - Landon Milbourne, Maryland. The Terrapins' second leading scorer was MIA in Maryland's loss to Wake Forest. The junior missed his first five shots, didn't connect from the field until 2:34 remained in the second half, and finished with only two points. Had Milbourne played better, Maryland likely would have notched the quality win the Terrapins' need to secure an at-large bid.

Commentary :: Link & Discuss (1 comment)

Next 15 >>