Kansas

KANSAS GRAPH

Obviously this graph looks really nice. Offense is trending upwards, and 4 of the best 5 games have come in the last 6 games. Defense is trending downwards, and 2 of the best 4 have come in the last 4. Really not much to say here that you wouldn't have figured out from using your eyes or traditional stats. The team has playing at a very high level against inferior competition.

Oklahoma

OKLAHOMA GRAPH

Oklahoma's offense has improved over the season, but leveled off recently. Their bad games are around average, and their good games are 25% above average, instead of their bad games being 10% below average and their good games being 15% above average. Still some inconsistency. But the improvement in their offense is canceled out by their decline in defense. They haven't had a very good defensive game in their last seven. Their last 10 games, they've played like a top 50 team, but not won like a top 50 team, which has been the story all year. According to Pomeroy, they're the unluckiest team in the country. Still, they should at least be better competition than Iowa State.

Predictions

Efficiency based:

• Pomeroy... +6 ... KU 65 OU 59
• Last 10 ... +18 ... KU 77 OU 59
• Trendlines ... +24 ... KU 80 OU 56
• Streaks ... +18 ... KU 76 OU 58

Power ratings:

• Sagarin ... +6.4
• Greenfield ... +5.4
• Dolphin ... +5.8 ... KU 65 OU 59
• Dokter ... +4.5
• Moore ... +10.4
• Ashby ... +7 ... KU 69 OU 62
• Lynch ... +2.7
• Dunkel ... +10.5

Other:

• Vegas ... +7 ... KU 68 OU 61
• My subjective pick ... +12 ... KU 70 OU 58

The efficiency data seems to suggest this won't be as close as all the power ratings and Vegas suggest, but I haven't been tracking these predictions for long, so who knows how accurate it will be. I'm going with a balance between the efficiency and power ratings, and saying it's a 12-point KU win.