IN: App State, Drexel and Gonzaga
OUT: Villanova, VCU and Santa Clara

1)App State: Teams are supposed to be evaluated differently when they are without a top player (see Bradley last year).  Donte Minter missed the first 8 games, which included devestating road losses to Clemson, Wake Forest and my beloved Hokies.  They have a questionably low RPI of 56 (but still solid for a Southern Conference team), 8 wins against top 120 teams (4 away/neutral games, 3 top 60 wins), the 4th-ranked non-conference schedule (RPI rating system), 6-3 record in those nonconference games and a road/neutral record of 12-5.  This team can flat out play and a spot in the conference finals should seal a spot.

2)Drexel: These road warriors are a close second to App State in my top three current projected omissions.  Their RPI is very solid at 42, they have 7 wins against top 120 teams (5 on the road, 3 top 60 wins, including at Villanova), a 13-4 road neutral record and 5 losses to top 80 teams.  Granted, they do have 2 bad losses (at William and Mary and at Rider) but this is still a tourney profile.

3)Gonzaga: This is the one team of my three "ins" that I can almost understand not being selected.  However, the RPI (71) is solid considering the schedule (#5 Non-Con with 17 games played) and they have gone 3-2 (one loss to Memphis) since losing Josh Heytvelt.  5-8 versus top 100 teams (all but 2 away or neutral) with 2 bad losses away versus St. Mary's and Loyola Marymount.  Wins against UNC, Texas and Stanford should equate to an at-large bid, especially since all were away from the friendly confines of home.

4)Santa Clara: OK, I am not a fan of the RPI, but I have used it for the "in" teams, so I will do so now for the "out" teams.  Santa Clara's RPI is the only one that I agree with (82), since they only have 4 wins against the top 120 (4-6 versus top 100), with 2 wins at home.  Their non-conference ranking is 68th, with a 9-5 record and they are 8-4 overall in road/neutral games.  The best two wins are at Stanford and Gonzaga (40th and 71st respectively), with two losses to Loyola Marymount and a crushing defeat at home to an overrated Air Force team.  Definitely not an at-large.

5)VCU: I prefer a system where the regular-season conference champion gets the NCAA bid and the tourney winner goes to the NIT, so I must give kudos to the Rams for winning a tough CAA title.  However, they are ranked 59th, with 6 wins against the top 120 (only 4-6 against the top 100) while their best two wins were against ODU and Drexel (home and away, respectively).  The 91st-ranked non-conference SOS offsets a strong 12-4 road/neutral record.  Without the signature win that all 3 of my "in" teams possess, I cannot see why VCU is an at-large team.

6)Villanova: Probably the most controversial team in my "out" section, I just cannot understand the computer numbers or the overall love this team is getting from seemingly everyone.  Their RPI is an amazing 21st with an overall SOS of 7TH!! (I am flummoxed by both numbers).  They do have 10 wins against the top 120 (8-9 against the top 100) but have only 4 signature wins, 3 of them at home, the best being at Georgetown.  The non-conference SOS is 37th, with only three of these wins away from Philly.  Basically, this team has beaten up the weaker teams in the Big East, which is MAYBE the 6th best conference this season.