That said, UNC is in, in all likelihood, too deep for Michigan State across a Tournament game. They should prevail; pending any upsets tonight or Sunday, they'll probably play Texas in the Sweet 16 in a stacked East Rutherford Regional. Pundits all over think they could lose this game, and if you believe the notion they're similar to UConn '06 - which they might be - this seems a game they could drop. Durant will likely do well, although you have to assume Roy will key on him, and Wright of UNC will want a strong showing to vault himself into the discussion come June. I think UNC takes them, too.

The likely Elite Eight opponent would then be Georgetown (confession: that's my alma mater). While I almost don't want Georgetown to win, because in my mind I'd have to get my fat arse to Atlanta and financially that's a terrible idea at this point, I think UNC loses this one. While deep, and with a very impressive primary and secondary break, they are young and prone to missteps, as we saw throughout the ACC schedule. The Hoyas are veteran, and came in hotter. They should prevail in a good game.

So, by my logic, that's UNC losing in the Elite Eight. Moving on...

Ohio State - I think Saturday's game, the other No.1 already set matchup, will be closer than advertised. Xavier can't handle OSU's height, and in the end they'll lose, but this has the backstory - Matta - to be a game where Xavier comes out hot and keeps it close. Oden, in the end, should be too much.

Both Tennessee and Virginia looked extremely impressive earlier against weaker competition; I'm not sure who takes that game on Sunday. I'd go with Tennessee because of Lofton, but I think Leitao will have some type of plan to neutralize him. Tennessee almost lost to Winthrop last year, then did lose to the Shockers; I just don't think they are as good as promoted, even with a healthy Lofton. Backcourt play is important in the earlier rounds of the Dance, so I think UVA's guards - the second best duo in America to UCLA - carries them.

Virginia, also, doesn't seem tall enough to contain Ohio State in a Sweet 16 game. But - BIG but - I'll go out on a limb here and say UVA's guards hassle Conley, Lewis, and Butler and help the Cavaliers pull off a big surprise in San Antonio. Another gut feeling? Karma. On the one year Calhoun is playing golf during mid-March, how sweet would it be if his former assistant made the Elite Eight, and the Hoyas made the Final Four? Ha.

I'll take OSU losing in the Sweet 16, although logic dictates they might lose in the next round, truly. I gotta be brave.

Florida - With the way the bottom of the Midwest is shaking up (mine is an utter disaster), Florida might face Oregon in the Elite Eight. Then again, they might face UNLV. Assuming they can get by Maryland, who should be their Sweet 16 draw - I think they can, given Maryland's somewhat streaky play and the fact that if Gary Williams takes as long as he does against the Gators to make important adjustments as he did against Davidson, he won't have time to win - I don't see the Gators losing until at least Atlanta, if at all.

So, we've got Florida in the Final Four (and yes, I realize Arizona could be the type of team that sneaks up on 'em, UAB-on-Kentucky style, but Arizona seems too selfish and shallow - i.e. not deep - to run with Florida in a Dance game).

Kansas - As of writing this, Kansas hasn't even played yet. Now, neither has Florida, but let's be honest: you know they'll rout Jackson State, but are you entirely sure Kansas routs Niagara? I know, I know: good team, coming together down the stretch, realizing the value of defense, extremely deep, yadda yadda yadda. We've all yadda yadda'ed sex, as Elaine Benes tells us, and in the same vein (kinda), you shouldn't gloss over a possible Kansas nail biter. After all, 'tis the first round, and 'tis Bill Self.

If the Kentucky AD hadn't come out and said Tubby's job was fine, I'd almost pick KU to lose in the second round, assuming Tubby went into it thinking he was coaching to stay in Lexington. Because that whoopie cushion was pulled out from him at the last second, I think KU's depth runs UK in a game sure to feature a variety of pre-produced CBS packages on the history of college hoops (in the same weekend as UCLA vs. Indiana!).

Then, KU rolls with Southern Illinois or Virginia Tech - again, probably, not definitely. I want a UCLA vs. Kansas Regional Final desperately, perhaps more than anything else this Tournament not involving Georgetown, but I almost think KU could lose here. Southern Illinois, if they get there, has the defense to keep it close; Virginia Tech is a veteran team brought together by a series of tragedies last year. Still, I'll pick the Jayhawks, in another closer-than-advertised game.

And, in what might be the Tournament's best game on paper, UCLA beats Kansas in either 1 or 2 overtime periods to head to Atlanta.

So I've got, in terms of "elimination round" -
UNC: Elite Eight
Ohio State: Sweet Sixteen
Kansas: Elite Eight
Florida: Final Four or later