By Yoni Cohen on Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 11:44:46 PM EST
Many people assumed that Memphis' nine point lead with 2:12 remaining in the NCAA tournament final suggested the Tigers had all but won the championship.
Not Bill James, the famed baseball statistician.
According to James' formula -- developed in large part at Kansas' Allen Fieldhouse -- the Tigers' lead was only "23% safe."
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