Does Bo Know?
1. Does Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan know how valuable Jon Leuer is to the Badgers' defense?
On January 31st, with sophomore Keaton Nankivil in the starting lineup, Wisconsin lost its sixth consecutive game. Four days later, on February 4th, Nankivil injured his ankle in practice. Sophomore Jon Leuer then replaced Nankivil as a starter and helped the Badgers win four straight contests.
However, both Leuer and Ryan are downplaying the importance of Ryan's lineup change. “[Starting] doesn’t make any difference to me,” said Leuer. “The starting has nothing to do with whether Jon’s scoring or not,” added Ryan. More from the Associated Press:
The fixation on the importance of starting goes all the way back to elementary school when parents would ask their children whether they were starting, Ryan said. He said he's never put much stock in it.
Maybe Ryan should put more stock in his starting lineup -- because Leuer's results speak for themselves. Wisconsin has won four straight because the Badgers play significantly tougher defense when Leuer starts.
| 2009 Stats (points per possession from KenPom.com) | Nankivil as Starter (8 Games) | Leuer as Starter (4 Games) |
| Wisconsin's Offensive Efficiency | 1.08 | 1.08 |
| Wisconsin's Defensive Efficiency | 1.08 | 0.87 |
[Ed. Note]: The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Dave Heller asks why I only used eight games for Nankivil when Keaton has started 20. The answer is that I aimed to compare apples (the eight games Nankivil started in 2009 against Big Ten teams) to apples (the four games Leuer started in 2009 against Big Ten teams), rather than apples (the 20 games Nankivil started against, among others in 2008, Coppin State, SIU Edwardsville, and San Diego) to oranges (the four games Leuer started in 2009 against Big Ten teams).
2. Does Bo know he is about to get lucky?
Based on Wisconsin's RPI of 30 and wins over Illinois, Ohio State, and Virginia Tech, ESPN.com's Joe Lunardi, SI.com's Andy Glockner, and CollegeRPI.com's Jerry Palm (for CBSSports.com) all project the Badgers will participate in the NCAA Tournament.
Fair enough. I agree that the Badgers' current resume is worthy of a bid. But there is another reason to believe Wisconsin will be dancing in March. Namely, according to KenPom.com, Wisconsin is among the least "lucky" bubble teams in America. (Only Kentucky, Florida, Texas, Miami, and Georgetown have suffered greater misfortune). The Badgers should be winning more games than they are. Because I believe that luck has a way of evening itself out, I think Wisconsin is due for good news -- perhaps through a "quality win" at Michigan State, at Minnesota, or in the Big Ten Tournament. Stay tuned.
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