Welcome to yocohoops 2009, still available for free (as of this writing).

Sometimes it seems like there are no sure things in college basketball, as Tom Izzo, Kalin Lucas, Jim Calhoun, and Hasheem Thabeet can all tell you.

Hoops' busy season -- and America's obsession with bracketology and the bracket -- are just getting started, and/but I feel there ARE some bets you can go to Mandalay Bay with.

Not all of these are locks, but if you are the wagering type, I suggest putting cash money down on these:

*** The Gang of 500 will opine -- repeatedly, shamelessly, and correctly -- that the national championship race is open as it has been in years. To wit, North Carolina has lost twice and is without Marcus Ginyard for the rest of the season, Connecticut has lost twice (at home!) and is without Jerome Dyson for the rest of the season, Oklahoma and Memphis have each beaten exactly one club with an RPI of 25 or better, Pittsburgh allows its opponents to score several more points per possession than the five prior NCAA Tournament champions, Purdue nipped the Michigan State boomlet in the bud, Louisville last week lost (by 33 points!) to 10-loss Notre Dame, Wake Forest has lost four of its last seven games, Duke has lost four of its last six contests, etc.

*** The South won't rise again. LSU may have ended the SEC's five-week drought in ESPN/USA Today's Top 25, but the Tigers are imposters. To wit, LSU's non-conference schedule consists of -- wait for it -- wins over Jackson State, Alcorn State, Northwestern State, Centenary, Troy, Cal State Fullerton, Grambling State, Nicholls State, McNeese State, Washington State, Louisiana-Lafayette, and Southeastern Louisiana and losses to Xavier, Utah, and Texas A&M. The Tigers' conference resume includes two ok wins, over South Carolina at home and Tennessee on the road, and one bad loss, at hapless Alabama. Trent Johnson's club is also the single "luckiest" ranked team in the America, suggesting its good fortune will soon end. Elsewhere, the conference is mired in mediocrity. Kentucky couldn't beat Vanderbilt, Florida couldn't beat Georgia, and Tennessee couldn't beat Auburn. South Carolina travels worse than its 4-4 road record implies, as the Gamecocks' hostile arena resume includes a loss to the College of Charleston, two one point wins, and one two point victory.

*** If Matt Painter weren't already on Jim Livengood's list of potential Lute Olson successors, he is today, after Purdue's sound defeat of Michigan State. Painter's resume isn't as long as those of Jamie Dixon or Mark Few, but it is impressive. Five seasons as a head coach, soon to be four March Madness appearances, and at least two NCAA Tournament wins -- one of which came against Arizona in 2007.

*** If Billy Gillispie didn't already believe his offense relies too heavily on Jodie Meeks, he does today, after Kentucky's loss to Vanderbilt. After receiving the Ray Glier treatment in the New York Times, Meeks attempted nearly twice as many shots as the rest of the Wildcats' starting lineup combined. Unfortunately for Gillispie, Jodie converted only six of 21 from the field.

*** PitinoWrightBoeheimHuggins will get very tired of answering questions about DixonCalhoun (if they haven't already).

*** WeberMattaSmithRyanBeilein will get very tired of answering questions about PainterIzzo (if they haven't already).

*** It will take weeks (rather than days) for North Carolina to determine if Tyler Zeller -- who will likely return to action tonight against North Carolina State -- will be ready to seriously contribute in March.

*** It will take days (rather than weeks) for Davidson to determine if Stephen Curry -- who may or may not play tonight against The Citadel -- will be ready to seriously contribute in March.

*** Utah will be one of three Mountain West Conference clubs in the NCAA Tournament. Don't believe anybody who tells you they know the identity of the other two teams.

*** Memphis will be one of the clubs in the Sweet 16. Don't believe anybody who tells you they know the identity of the other 15 teams.

*** Oakland's Keith Benson is the best mid-major conference player you've never heard of.

*** Florida's Nick Calathes is the best major conference player you haven't heard enough about.

*** Seth Davis has more hoop thoughts up his sleeve.

*** Jeff Goodman has more coaching scoops in his pocket.

THE KNOWN UNKNOWNS:

1. Will broadcasters ever realize the irony of their mentioning that a particular player attended the Steve Nash Skills Academy or the Amare Stoudemire Skills Academy? Last I checked the values of Nash and Stoudemire were tanking faster than the Dow Jones.

2. Why can't Miami win close games? Tonight, Miami travels to Florida State. The Hurricanes are 1-6 and the Seminoles are 9-1 in games decided by five points or less, which is why Miami is on the bubble and Florida State has all but locked up a bid.

3. At what age did Nic Wise commit to Arizona? (Ok, this one I know. The answer? At age 15, Wise became the first Texan basketball player in history to commit to a college during his first year in high school).

4. Will Temple defeat Dayton on February 28th? No single regular season game -- in the country -- is more important to one of its participants than Temple's trip to Dayton. An RPI of 34 keeps the Owls in the hunt, but a 1-4 record against the RPI Top 50 will pop Temple's bubble unless Dionte Christmas & Co. can get another quality win before Selection Sunday.

5. Is Arizona State's zone defense really the key to the Sun Devils' success, as the Arizona Republic's Doug Haller would have you believe? In the seven early season games before Arizona State started playing zone, the Sun Devils allowed their opponents to score .92 points per possession. In the 18 mid- and late-season games since Herb Sendek ditched the man-to-man defense he employed at North Carolina State, the Sun Devils have allowed their opponents to score .97 points per possession. This suggests the zone has actually hurt Arizona State. But the Sun Devils' non-conference strength of schedule is significantly weaker than their conference strength of schedule, which implies the opposite, that the zone defense has indeed helped Sendek's crew...