The Mountain West Conference: New Mexico's Great Leap Forward


What to make of the Mountain West Conference? Five clubs have at least eight league wins and are in the hunt for an NCAA Tournament bid.

The arguments for and against Utah, BYU, UNLV, New Mexico and San Diego State have been hashed and rehashed by bubble watchers nationwide, including ESPN.com's Mark Schlabach and Andy Katz, SI.com's Andy Glockner, FoxSports.com' Jeff Goodman, CBSSports.com's Brian De Los Santos, and Rivals.com's Mike Huguenin.

Across the board, the Lobos are given short thrift, particularly by Schlabach, who mysteriously left the Lobos off his bubble altogether. Why is Steve Alford's club out of favor? An RPI of 68, a 4-8 record away from The Pit, and bad losses to Central Florida, Drake, and Texas Tech.

But the yocontrarian in me thinks New Mexico might soon be dancing. Why? First, the Lobos' favorable end of season schedule, comprising of road games at Colorado State and Wyoming (both of which the Lobos thrashed at home) and a game against Utah at home (where the Lobos are undefeated in conference). Second, and more notably, New Mexico is only the MWC club that has improved on both the offensive and defensive ends since the start of conference play. The Lobos are now the conference's most efficient offensive club and second most efficient defensive club.

2008-2009 Stats From KenPom.com Offensive Efficiency Offensive Efficiency Offense Got Better/Worse Defensive Efficiency Defensive Efficiency Defense Got Better/Worse
Points Per Possession Non-Conference* Conference* During Season Non-Conference* Conference* During Season
New Mexico 1.08 1.15 Better 0.98 0.96 Better
BYU 1.08 1.06 Worse 0.90 0.99 Worse
UNLV 1.05 1.07 Better 0.93 0.99 Worse
Utah 1.09 1.04 Worse 0.97 0.92 Better
San Diego State 1.08 1.06 Worse 0.90 0.99 Worse

* Importantly, for all five teams, the strength of each club's non-conference schedule is roughly equal to the strength of its conference schedule.

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