When there is blood in the streets, should hoopheads buy Butler?
No. The young Bulldogs have hit a wall on defense.
Should contrarian hoopheads head Baron Rothschild’s famous advice, “when there is blood in the streets, buy real estate,” and upgrade rather than downgrade the Bulldogs after their loss last night to Cleveland State?
The arguments for buying:
First, Butler still has a solid resume, with wins over Xavier, UAB, Northwestern, and Davidson. Second, the Bulldogs are also very consistent. According to Ken Pomeroy, Butler is the nation's sixth most consistent club. Third, Cleveland State isn't half bad. The Vikings won at Syracuse and entered the Horizon League with more than twice as many wins (21) as losses (10). Fourth and finally, Butler yesterday played almost as badly as it is capable of playing -- and still only lost by three points. (Using Pomeroy's stats, I computed the difference in the Bulldogs' average and actual offensive and defensive efficiencies in each of their games this season. Only once, in a loss at Wisconsin-Green Bay, was Butler's combined deviation from their average efficiencies notably worse than last night's deviation).
The arguments for selling:
First, Butler's resume isn't exceptional. The Bulldogs' best wins came either in late November and early December or against teams that are at best on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Butler also lost at hapless Wisconsin-Milwaukee and at home (!) to Loyola of Chicago. Second, the Bulldogs aren't particularly efficient. According to Ken Pomeroy (and before last night's loss), Butler is only the nation's 58th most efficient offensive club and 46th most efficient defensive club, making their Top 25 rating hard to justify. Third, Cleveland State lost to Youngstown State, Wichita State, and Wisconsin-Milwaukee and isn't great. But last night's close contest was no fluke. Butler twice beat the Vikings by only two points before last night's loss. Fourth, finally -- and most importantly -- Butler has hit a wall on defense (contrary to what coach Brad Stevens told the Indianapolis Star's David Woods in late February). The young Bulldogs have played significantly less efficient defense in their final 11 Horizon League games than they did in their first 10. Butler allowed conference opponents to score 0.12 more points per possession than it did early in the season.
| Points Scored/Allowed Per Possession (from KenPom.com) | First 10 Horizon League Games | Final 11 Horizon League Games |
| Butler's Offensive Efficiency | 1.06 | 1.08 |
| Butler's Defensive Efficiency | 0.87 | 0.99 |
Conclusion:
Based on Butler's late-season defensive collapse, hoopheads should read the writing on the wall and downgrade the Bulldogs.
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